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WSH vs DET

Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ DET simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
DETROITDET
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTDET DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

WSH Leadoff (R) vs HP

FB94.5
CV77.9
CH86

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

WSH Leadoff in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · WSH LEADOFF

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

DET to win

46%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

DET -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL DET

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

DET wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYWSH Leadoff at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 14 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Washington wins

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

WSH STARTER

Richard Lovelady

SHAKY
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
92
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 45% · 25% whiffSinker · 29% · 20% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 21% · 21% whiff

DET STARTER

Framber Valdez

AVERAGE
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 44% · 10% whiffCurveball · 30% · 32% whiffChangeup · 18% · 21% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Framber Valdez grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Richard Lovelady grades poor (Pitching+ 92)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Wood (L)hit 65% · HR 24%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Daylen Lile (L)hit 62% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 54% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 56% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 58% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jorbit Vivas (L)hit 52% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Yohandy Morales (R)hit 54% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Keibert Ruiz (S)hit 56% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 45% · HR 3%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    45%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    7%

    3+ BASES

    4%

    4+ BASES

    15%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Gleyber Torres (R)hit 60% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 61% · HR 12%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 61% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Eduardo Valencia (R)hit 64% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ben Malgeri (R)hit 54% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Max Clark (L)hit 56% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 52% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Javier Báez (R)hit 50% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9John Peck (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH DET

Game Markets

WSH @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

DET -1.5

42%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

53%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore WSH by 0.72 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.46, DET 5.18
  • Richard Lovelady (WSH) vs Framber Valdez (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RL

Richard Lovelady

WSH SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

75%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against DET
FV

Framber Valdez

DET SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.