Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies · AI Model Read · Wednesday, September 23, 2026

BETFLYAISIGN IN

ARIZONAARI

—

@2026-09-23COL HOME PARK

57-101 · +5 NL WEST · L3 · 2-8 L10

COLORADOCOL

Weather

—

Home plate ump

—

Injuries

No injury concerns

Series so far

3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026

— PITCHING MATCHUP

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS13 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Mason Adams · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

+115 Fanatics47% book68% +21pp

Cole Carrigg · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

high-OBP profile + lineup behind drives runs

+100 DraftKings50% book67% +17pp

Hunter Goodman · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

+125 DraftKings44% book60% +15pp

Hunter Goodman · Over 0.5 1+ HR

matchup grade lights up the HR pricing

+300 BetRivers25% book39% +14pp

Ketel Marte · Under 2.5 <3 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

-163 DraftKings62% book76% +14pp

Merrill Kelly · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-111 DraftKings53% book65% +12pp

Ketel Marte · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+107 BetOnline.48% book58% +10pp

Mickey Moniak · Over 0.5 1+ HR

platoon edge + park boost

+480 BetRivers17% book25% +8pp

Corbin Carroll · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

+100 Bovada50% book58% +8pp

Gabriel Moreno · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+105 Caesars49% book56% +8pp

Adael Amador · Over 0.5 1+ HR

L30 power profile + matchup edge

+850 Caesars11% book18% +8pp

Nolan Arenado · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling

-120 Bovada55% book62% +7pp

Jake McCarthy · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

-114 BetOnline.53% book59% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDiamondbacks 56%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

ARI COL

Game Markets

ARI @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ARI to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

73%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

69%

Run Line

COL -1.5

31%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

64%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

55%

THE READ

ARI projects to outscore COL by 0.94 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: ARI 6.33, COL 5.39
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) vs Tanner Gordon (COL)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Eduardo Rodriguez

ARI SP · vs. COL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
34% to reach 5+ against COL

Tanner Gordon

COL SP · vs. ARI

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
21% to reach 5+ against ARI

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

46%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

64%

Total Bases

3+ bases

54%

Total Bases

4+ bases

49%

RBIs

1+ RBI

59%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

36%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 46% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

30%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

Gabriel Moreno

ARI · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

42%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 42% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tanner Gordon

Ketel Marte

ARI · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

38%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Facing Tanner Gordon

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

Corbin Carroll

ARI · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 38% against 32% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Tanner Gordon

Cole Carrigg

COL · bats S · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

Nolan Arenado

ARI · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tanner Gordon

Lars Nootbaar

ARI · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Tanner Gordon

Pavin Smith

ARI · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tanner Gordon

Adael Amador

COL · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

Geraldo Perdomo

ARI · bats S · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 72%.

Batting 4 · bats S
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tanner Gordon

Jesús Sánchez

ARI · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Tanner Gordon

Tim Tawa

ARI · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tanner Gordon

Kyle Karros

COL · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 71%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

Zac Veen

COL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 17% against 19%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 71%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Eduardo Rodriguez

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

COL vs LHP (team)OPS.709K%24.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.687K%20.1%

— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY

THIS SERIES

ARI 0·COL 0

3-game set · gm 3 of 3

2026 SEASON

ARI 0·COL 6

15 played · 4 remaining

ALL-TIME (2010-)

100%COL

ARI 0 · COL 167 · since 2010

NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS

2026-09-24AZ 5-3

2026-09-23AZ 7-2

2026-08-12COL 6-4

— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Moneyline

ARI66¢ · 66%

COL38¢ · 38%

Total 10.5

Over52¢ · 52%

Under52¢ · 52%

Run line ±1.5

ARI -1.5— · —

COL +1.5— · —

First 5 innings

O 4.5— · —

U 4.5— · —

TOTAL MOVEMENT10→10.5→10→10.5→10→10.5last 12h

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA

+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

COL OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA

-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

— ENVIRONMENT

COORS FIELD

112HR

HR factor1.12 · +

Runs factor1.18 · +

Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean

Injury report unavailable.

THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DIAMONDBACKS 56%

Mean score sim 6.3–5.4 · projected total 11.7 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

GO EDGE · $10/MO