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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CIN vs ATL

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CIN @ ATL simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CINCINNATICIN
0·0
ATLANTAATL
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

CIN DUGOUTATL DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Carlos Jorge (L) vs HP

FB94.9
FB93.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Carlos Jorge in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · CARLOS JORGE

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

ATL to win

66%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

ATL -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL ATL

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

ATL wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYCarlos Jorge at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 83 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEATL
LINEUP EDGEATL

CIN STARTER

Brady Singer

SHAKY
3.3
PROJECTED Ks
87
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 51% · 16% whiffSlider · 27% · 31% whiffSweeper · 13% · 41% whiff

ATL STARTER

Tyler Mahle

AVERAGE
4.8
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 48% · 23% whiffSplit-Finger · 29% · 27% whiffCutter · 15% · 15% whiff

Tyler Mahle grades avg (Pitching+ 102) vs Brady Singer grades poor (Pitching+ 87)

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Juan Brito (S)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 66% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 61% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Dane Myers (R)hit 54% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 49% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Matt McLain (R)hit 44% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    44%

    1+ HIT

    10%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    23%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Oswaldo Cabrera (S)hit 48% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    21%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Will Banfield (R)hit 47% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    22%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)hit 42% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    17%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    13%

    RBI

    4%

    2+ RBIs

    20%

    SCORES A RUN

ATL LINEUP

  1. 1Drake Baldwin (L)hit 74% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    37%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mauricio Dubón (R)hit 65% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Matt Olson (L)hit 68% · HR 26%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ozzie Albies (S)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Michael Harris II (L)hit 72% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Austin Riley (R)hit 59% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Sean Murphy (R)hit 51% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Brewer Hicklen (R)hit 53% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ha-Seong Kim (R)hit 46% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    20%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CIN ATL

Game Markets

CIN @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

42%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore CIN by 0.68 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CIN 4.36, ATL 5.04
  • Brady Singer (CIN) vs Tyler Mahle (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BS

Brady Singer

CIN SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

31%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against ATL
TM

Tyler Mahle

ATL SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

54%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

64%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

53%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 54% to reach 5+ against CIN
MO

Matt Olson

ATL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Brady Singer
DB

Drake Baldwin

ATL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Brady Singer
MI

Michael Harris II

ATL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Brady Singer
EC

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
SS

Sal Stewart

CIN · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
MD

Mauricio Dubón

ATL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Brady Singer
ES

Eugenio Suárez

CIN · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
AR

Austin Riley

ATL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
SM

Sean Murphy

ATL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
OA

Ozzie Albies

ATL · bats S · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 30% against 27% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
JB

Juan Brito

CIN · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
DM

Dane Myers

CIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
BH

Brewer Hicklen

ATL · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Brady Singer
OC

Oswaldo Cabrera

CIN · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
WB

Will Banfield

CIN · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
HK

Ha-Seong Kim

ATL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Brady Singer
MM

Matt McLain

CIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle
KH

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

15%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

4%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 59%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tyler Mahle

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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