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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

CLE vs BOS

Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CLE @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CLEVELANDCLE
0·0
BOSTONBOS
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

CLE DUGOUTBOS DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Steven Kwan (L) vs HP

FB93.9
SL84.3
CH84.2
FB93.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Steven Kwan in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · STEVEN KWAN

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

BOS to win

41%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

BOS -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL BOS

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

BOS wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSteven Kwan at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 79 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Boston wins

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEBOS
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

CLE STARTER

Foster Griffin

AVERAGE
3.7
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 33% · 20% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 16% · 17% whiffSweeper · 14% · 32% whiff

BOS STARTER

Sonny Gray

AVERAGE
3.9
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 22% · 16% whiffSweeper · 20% · 39% whiffCutter · 19% · 15% whiff

Sonny Gray grades avg (Pitching+ 103) vs Foster Griffin grades avg (Pitching+ 98)

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 69% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2José Ramírez (S)hit 64% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 70% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 65% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Travis Bazzana (L)hit 61% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 63% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Patrick Bailey (S)hit 54% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Petey Halpin (L)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

BOS LINEUP

  1. 1Roman Anthony (L)hit 66% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Nick Sogard (S)hit 62% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jahmai Jones (R)hit 62% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 64% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Adley Rutschman (S)hit 58% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ceddanne Rafaelahit 59% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Caleb Durbin (R)hit 55% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Trevor Story (R)hit 55% · HR 10%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Andruw Monasterio (R)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CLE BOS

Game Markets

CLE @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

30%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

32%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore BOS by 0.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.09, BOS 3.65
  • Foster Griffin (CLE) vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

48%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against BOS
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against CLE
JA

Jo Adell

CLE · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Sonny Gray
SK

Steven Kwan

CLE · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Sonny Gray
JJ

Jahmai Jones

BOS · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
CD

Chase DeLauter

CLE · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sonny Gray
NL

Nathaniel Lowe

CLE · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Sonny Gray
WA

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Foster Griffin
RA

Roman Anthony

BOS · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 26% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Foster Griffin
TB

Travis Bazzana

CLE · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Sonny Gray
JR

José Ramírez

CLE · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sonny Gray
CR

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
NS

Nick Sogard

BOS · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin
AR

Adley Rutschman

BOS · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Foster Griffin
BR

Brayan Rocchio

CLE · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 62%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Facing Sonny Gray
PH

Petey Halpin

CLE · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Sonny Gray
TS

Trevor Story

BOS · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Foster Griffin
CD

Caleb Durbin

BOS · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Foster Griffin
PB

Patrick Bailey

CLE · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 62%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Sonny Gray
AM

Andruw Monasterio

BOS · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 9% against 11%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Foster Griffin

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

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