AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCWS vs KC
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CWS @ KC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Sam Antonacci (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Sam Antonacci in this spot
BATTER PROPS · SAM ANTONACCI
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
KC to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
KC -1.5
TEAM TOTAL KC
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
KC wins F5
event 1 / 77 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CWS STARTER
Bryan Hudson
AVERAGE- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
KC STARTER
Seth Lugo
SHAKY- 3.5
- PROJECTED Ks
- 94
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: Sinker, 4-Seam Fastball are getting hit hard lately.
Seth Lugo grades poor (Pitching+ 94) vs Bryan Hudson grades avg (Pitching+ 99)
CWS LINEUP
1Sam Antonacci (L)hit 71% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
50%
SCORES A RUN
2Kyle Teel (L)hit 63% · HR 18%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
3Miguel Vargas (R)hit 69% · HR 28%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
28%
HOME RUN
51%
2+ BASES
37%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
43%
RBI
21%
2+ RBIs
54%
SCORES A RUN
4Munetaka Murakami (L)hit 65% · HR 35%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
35%
HOME RUN
49%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
35%
4+ BASES
47%
RBI
25%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
5Andrew Benintendi (L)hit 65% · HR 17%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
27%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
6Tristan Peters (L)hit 64% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
7Chase Meidroth (R)hit 62% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
8Colson Montgomery (L)hit 59% · HR 23%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
9Braden Montgomery (S)hit 56% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
KC LINEUP
1Carter Jensen (L)hit 66% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 76% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
52%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
35%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 72% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
72%
1+ HIT
34%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
40%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Maikel Garcia (R)hit 65% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
5Vinnie Pasquantino (L)hit 64% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
6Salvador Perez (R)hit 64% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
7Michael Massey (L)hit 62% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN
8John Rave (L)hit 57% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
9Isaac Collins (S)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CWS @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
34%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
KC -1.5
30%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
53%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
43%
THE READ
CWS projects to outscore KC by 0.79 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CWS 5.18, KC 4.39
- Bryan Hudson (CWS) vs Seth Lugo (KC)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Bryan Hudson
CWS SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 54% to reach 5+ against KC
Seth Lugo
KC SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
25%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
- Sim projects 3.5 strikeouts
- 27% to reach 5+ against CWS
Munetaka Murakami
CWS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
34%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
36%
RBIs
1+ RBI
47%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
25%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 34% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Seth Lugo
Miguel Vargas
CWS · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
26%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
36%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
43%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Colson Montgomery
CWS · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
22%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
53%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats R
- Facing Bryan Hudson
Jac Caglianone
KC · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
33%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
18%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Facing Bryan Hudson
Sam Antonacci
CWS · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
34%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Seth Lugo
Kyle Teel
CWS · bats L · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Andrew Benintendi
CWS · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
16%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Carter Jensen
KC · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ bases — 45% against 41% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Hudson
Vinnie Pasquantino
KC · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
11%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
23%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
13%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
- Batting 5 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Bryan Hudson
Maikel Garcia
KC · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
37%
Total Bases
3+ bases
20%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Bryan Hudson
Tristan Peters
CWS · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.
- Batting 6 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Salvador Perez
KC · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
25%
Total Bases
2+ bases
38%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryan Hudson
Chase Meidroth
CWS · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
35%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats R
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Seth Lugo
Michael Massey
KC · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
64%
Hits
2+ hits
23%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Facing Bryan Hudson
John Rave
KC · bats L · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 66%.
- Batting 8 · bats L
- Facing Bryan Hudson
Braden Montgomery
CWS · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Seth Lugo
Isaac Collins
KC · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 66%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Bryan Hudson
III · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
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