Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ethan Pecko · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
HOU @ SEA · full-game reads
Moneyline
SEA to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
SEA F5
50%
Game Total
Over 8.5
42%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
SEA -1.5
38%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
36%
Team Total
SEA Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
SEA projects to outscore HOU by 0.34 runs across 5,000 trials.
HOU SP · vs. SEA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
91%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
37%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
SEA SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
59%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Notorious pitcher park.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.9–4.2 · projected total 8.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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