AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIA vs CHC

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA

0·0

CHICAGOCHC

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Otto Lopez (R) vs HP

FB92.1

SL83.6

FB95.2

CH86.1

FB92

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Otto Lopez in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · OTTO LOPEZ

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYOtto Lopez at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 83 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

CHC Over 3.5 runs

59%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 10-for-26 (.385) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career · 63°F, 16mph wind

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC

LINEUP EDGECHC

MIA STARTER

Tyler Phillips

SHAKY

3.7
PROJECTED Ks: 95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 26% · 6% whiffSweeper · 24% · 33% whiffSplit-Finger · 23% · 35% whiff

CHC STARTER

Matthew Boyd

AVERAGE

4.1
PROJECTED Ks: 100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 16% whiffChangeup · 28% · 27% whiffSlider · 14% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Matthew Boyd grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Tyler Phillips grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

MIA LINEUP

1Otto Lopez (R)hit 70% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
33%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Kyle Stowers (L)hit 62% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
62%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 60% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
4Griffin Conine (L)hit 64% · HR 25%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
5Javier Sanoja (R)hit 64% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Jakob Marsee (L)hit 58% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
7Agustín Ramírez (R)hit 58% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Graham Pauley (L)hit 52% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
9Joe Mack (L)hit 53% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 76% · HR 36%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
76%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
36%
HOME RUN
59%
2+ BASES
46%
3+ BASES
39%
4+ BASES
48%
RBI
24%
2+ RBIs
64%
SCORES A RUN
2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 71% · HR 23%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
71%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
50%
2+ BASES
34%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
52%
SCORES A RUN
3Michael Busch (L)hit 66% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
21%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
4Michael Conforto (L)hit 66% · HR 24%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
24%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
46%
SCORES A RUN
5Ian Happ (S)hit 63% · HR 20%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 63% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
7Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 58% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
8Dansby Swanson (R)hit 59% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
9Miguel Amaya (R)hit 55% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
27%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

97 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 12

MIA CHC

Game Markets

MIA @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

48%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

63%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

62%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

36%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

54%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 10.42 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: MIA 5.27, CHC 5.15
Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. CHC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
32% to reach 5+ against CHC

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. MIA

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
40% to reach 5+ against MIA

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

39%

Hits

1+ hits

81%

Hits

2+ hits

44%

Total Bases

2+ bases

65%

Total Bases

3+ bases

53%

Total Bases

4+ bases

45%

RBIs

1+ RBI

53%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

27%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 39% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tyler Phillips

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 23% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Tyler Phillips

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Tyler Phillips

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Tyler Phillips

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Tyler Phillips

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Tyler Phillips

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 35% against 38%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Tyler Phillips

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 69%.

Batting 7 · bats S
Facing Tyler Phillips

Miguel Amaya

CHC · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 69%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Tyler Phillips

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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