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MIL vs PHI

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Garrett Mitchell (L) vs HP

FB95.9
FB93.4
FB93.8
SL86.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Garrett Mitchell in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · GARRETT MITCHELL

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

41%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYGarrett Mitchell at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Logan Henderson

GOOD
4.9
PROJECTED Ks
107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 46% · 22% whiffChangeup · 35% · 37% whiffCutter · 16% · 21% whiff

PHI STARTER

Aaron Nola

GOOD
6.2
PROJECTED Ks
107
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Curveball · 33% · 41% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 24% · 14% whiffSinker · 18% · 13% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Aaron Nola grades good (Pitching+ 107) vs Logan Henderson grades good (Pitching+ 107)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 68% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jackson Chourio (R)hit 71% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Brice Turang (L)hit 66% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4William Contreras (R)hit 64% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jake Bauers (L)hit 62% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Joey Ortiz (R)hit 60% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Christian Yelich (L)hit 55% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Sal Frelick (L)hit 56% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 50% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 60% · HR 28%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 60% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 65% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 65% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 59% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryson Stott (L)hit 53% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Brandon Marsh (L)hit 57% · HR 12%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 52% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL PHI

Game Markets

MIL @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

24%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

30%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PHI by 1.17 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.67, PHI 3.50
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Aaron Nola (PHI)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

58%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

51%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 58% to reach 5+ against PHI
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

58%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.2 strikeouts
  • 77% to reach 5+ against MIL
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Logan Henderson
JC

Jackson Chourio

MIL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Aaron Nola
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Aaron Nola
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Logan Henderson
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Aaron Nola
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Aaron Nola
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Aaron Nola
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Aaron Nola
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Logan Henderson
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Logan Henderson
CY

Christian Yelich

MIL · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Aaron Nola
SF

Sal Frelick

MIL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Aaron Nola
BM

Brandon Marsh

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson
DH

David Hamilton

MIL · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

10%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Aaron Nola
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Logan Henderson

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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