BETFLYAISIGN IN
MINNESOTAMIN
75-84 · +3 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 5-5 L10
@WED 3:45 PM ETSF HOME PARK
65-94 · +4 NL WEST · L2 · 3-7 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Dillon Wilson K+0.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Connor Prielipp
LHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.87
IP
125.2
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS2.40 ERA · 21% K · 4.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
18%
13%
10%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinker
Cesar Perdomo
LHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
3.65
IP
24.2
K/9
5.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS3.83 ERA · 13.5% K · 6.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Connor Prielipp · Over 15.5 16+ Outs

ace-tier — manager extends the leash

+105 Bovada49% book69% +20pp

Cesar Perdomo · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

+100 BetMGM50% book69% +19pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTwins 61%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIN SF

Game Markets

MIN @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

32%

Game Total

Over 8.5

33%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

SF -1.5

23%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

23%

THE READ

MIN projects to outscore SF by 1.15 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIN 4.17, SF 3.02
  • Connor Prielipp (MIN) vs Cesar Perdomo (SF)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CP

Connor Prielipp

MIN SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 63% to reach 5+ against SF
CP

Cesar Perdomo

SF SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

48%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against MIN
JB

Josh Bell

MIN · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
LK

Luke Keaschall

MIN · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
RJ

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
RL

Royce Lewis

MIN · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
VB

Victor Bericoto

SF · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BL

Brooks Lee

MIN · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
AS

Aaron Sabato

MIN · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 11% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
AR

Alan Roden

MIN · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 22% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
ER

Emmanuel Rodriguez

MIN · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
JC

Jonah Cox

SF · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BD

Bo Davidson

SF · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 4
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 52%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BR

Ben Ross

MIN · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Cesar Perdomo
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
AK

Andrew Knizner

SF · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 24% against 25%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 11%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
MM

Marcelo Mayer

SF · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 59%.

  • Batting 7
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
BH

Brett Harris

SF · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

11%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Connor Prielipp
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CONNOR PRIELIPP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.678
vs Left-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.786
SF vs LHP (team)OPS.667K%23.3%

CESAR PERDOMO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%12.9%OPS-against.732
vs Left-handedK%14.7%OPS-against.869
MIN vs LHP (team)OPS.678K%22.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs CONNOR PRIELIPP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIN BATTERS vs CESAR PERDOMO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIN 2·SF 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIN 2·SF 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%MIN
MIN 13 · SF 11 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23MIN 4-2
2026-09-23MIN 3-2 · One-run game
2026-09-22SF 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIN61¢ · 61%
SF44¢ · 44%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
MIN -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIN OFFENSE

.274L15 team wOBA
-42 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

SF OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
WILSON
Called K rate0.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr6

Low sample size — no strong tendency signal.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

TWINS 61%

Mean score sim 4.2–3.0 · projected total 7.2 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

GO EDGE · $10/MO