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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

NYM vs TEX

New York Mets at Texas Rangers

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the NYM @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

NEW YORKNYM
0·0
TEXASTEX
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

NYM DUGOUTTEX DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Francisco Lindor (L) vs HP

FB95.7
CH82.9
CV79.3
SL84.4
SL83.3

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Francisco Lindor in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · FRANCISCO LINDOR

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

52%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYFrancisco Lindor at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 79 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

New York M wins

43%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYM
LINEUP EDGENYM

NYM STARTER

Nolan McLean

GOOD
5.6
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 34% · 13% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 27% whiffCurveball · 15% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

TEX STARTER

Cody Bradford

SHAKY
2.3
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 52% · 17% whiffChangeup · 31% · 20% whiffSlider · 11% · 14% whiff

Cody Bradford grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Nolan McLean grades good (Pitching+ 105)

NYM LINEUP

  1. 1Francisco Lindor (S)hit 68% · HR 21%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Juan Soto (L)hit 72% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bo Bichette (R)hit 69% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Mark Vientos (R)hit 67% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Carson Benge (L)hit 69% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Marcus Semien (R)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Francisco Alvarez (R)hit 62% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8A.J. Ewing (L)hit 63% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nick Morabito (R)hit 54% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Wyatt Langford (R)hit 66% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Corey Seager (L)hit 66% · HR 19%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Josh Jung (R)hit 66% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 60% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 59% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jake Burger (R)hit 62% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nicky Lopez (L)hit 59% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Danny Jansen (R)hit 49% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Evan Carter (L)hit 48% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYM TEX

Game Markets

NYM @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

28%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore TEX by 0.94 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 5.19, TEX 4.25
  • Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Cody Bradford (TEX)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against TEX
CB

Cody Bradford

TEX SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.3 strikeouts
  • 7% to reach 5+ against NYM
MV

Mark Vientos

NYM · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Cody Bradford
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Cody Bradford
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Cody Bradford
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Nolan McLean
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Nolan McLean
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Cody Bradford
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Nolan McLean
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cody Bradford
FA

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Cody Bradford
JJ

Josh Jung

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Nolan McLean
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Cody Bradford
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Nolan McLean
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cody Bradford
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nolan McLean
NL

Nicky Lopez

TEX · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nolan McLean
NM

Nick Morabito

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cody Bradford
DJ

Danny Jansen

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 26% against 32%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Nolan McLean
EC

Evan Carter

TEX · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

49%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 49% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Nolan McLean

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.