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SD vs LAD

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SD @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN DIEGOSD
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

SD DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB94.3
FB93.5
SL83.5
FB94
SL84.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

58%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 80 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGESD
LINEUP EDGELAD

SD STARTER

Nick Pivetta

GOOD
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 53% · 18% whiffCurveball · 21% · 26% whiffCutter · 14% · 11% whiff

LAD STARTER

Tyler Glasnow

AVERAGE
7.2
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 17% whiffCurveball · 26% · 52% whiffSinker · 21% · 22% whiff

Tyler Glasnow grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Nick Pivetta grades good (Pitching+ 106)

SD LINEUP

  1. 1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 65% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Dustin Harris (L)hit 59% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Manny Machado (R)hit 57% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ty France (R)hit 64% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 61% · HR 17%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 51% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 50% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Samad Taylor (R)hit 55% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ethan Salas (L)hit 49% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Mookie Betts (R)hit 67% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    52%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Shohei Ohtanihit 71% · HR 27%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    49%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    55%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Will Smith (R)hit 66% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Freddie Freeman (L)hit 66% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 64% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Kyle Tucker (L)hit 60% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Andy Pageshit 61% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Max Muncy (L)hit 55% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tommy Edman (S)hit 51% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD LAD

Game Markets

SD @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

38%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

39%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore SD by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 3.55, LAD 4.12
  • Nick Pivetta (SD) vs Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NP

Nick Pivetta

SD SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

21%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 26% to reach 5+ against LAD
TG

Tyler Glasnow

LAD SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

87%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

29%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

26%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

33%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 87% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.