AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

STL vs PIT

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the STL @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ST. LOUISSTL

0·0

PITTSBURGHPIT

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

JJ Wetherholt (L) vs HP

CV79.3

FB93.5

SL87

CV78.5

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

JJ Wetherholt in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · JJ WETHERHOLT

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

55%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYJJ Wetherholt at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 70 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Pittsburgh wins

45%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

GAME TOTAL

✗ MISSED

PIT Over 3.5 runs

45%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

straight from our 5,000-trial sim · lineup is 19-for-63 (.302) with 2 HR vs. this starter, career

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPIT

LINEUP EDGEPIT

STL STARTER

Kyle Leahy

AVERAGE

3.3
PROJECTED Ks: 101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 16% whiffCurveball · 16% · 27% whiffSlider · 16% · 23% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

PIT STARTER

Paul Skenes

AVERAGE

5.7
PROJECTED Ks: 105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 30% whiffSweeper · 16% · 27% whiffChangeup · 12% · 36% whiff

Paul Skenes grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Kyle Leahy grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

STL LINEUP

1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
2Iván Herrera (R)hit 59% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
3Alec Burleson (L)hit 66% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
16%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Jordan Walker (R)hit 64% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
5Leo Bernal (S)hit 61% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6Nolan Gorman (L)hit 47% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
47%
1+ HIT
12%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7José Fermín (R)hit 55% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
8Nathan Church (L)hit 54% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Masyn Winn (R)hit 49% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN

PIT LINEUP

1Konnor Griffin (R)hit 64% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 67% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
31%
3+ BASES
25%
4+ BASES
38%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 64% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
41%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
33%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
40%
SCORES A RUN
4Brandon Lowe (L)hit 64% · HR 23%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
23%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
24%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
18%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Nick Gonzales (R)hit 61% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Ronny Simon (S)hit 51% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 56% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
17%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
8Jared Triolo (R)hit 51% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
10%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Jake Mangum (S)hit 54% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
30%
SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL PIT

Game Markets

STL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

37%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.42 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: STL 4.09, PIT 4.33
Kyle Leahy (STL) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. PIT

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

19%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
23% to reach 5+ against PIT

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. STL

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

14%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.7 Ks.

Sim projects 5.7 strikeouts
71% to reach 5+ against STL

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Leahy

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Kyle Leahy

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Paul Skenes

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats S
Facing Kyle Leahy

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Paul Skenes

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Paul Skenes

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Kyle Leahy

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Kyle Leahy

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

Nolan Gorman

STL · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 50%.

Batting 6 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Leahy

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing Paul Skenes

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Leahy

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Facing Paul Skenes

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 62%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Facing Paul Skenes

Ronny Simon

PIT · bats S · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 62%.

Batting 6 · bats S
Facing Kyle Leahy

Jared Triolo

PIT · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 62%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Kyle Leahy

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 62%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Paul Skenes

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.