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AI MODEL READ

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TB vs NYY

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TB @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TAMPA BAYTB
0·0
NEW YORKNYY
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

TB DUGOUTNYY DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Yandy Díaz (R) vs HP

FB93.4
CH84.5
CH87.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Yandy Díaz in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · YANDY DÍAZ

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYYandy Díaz at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

New York Y wins

42%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY
LINEUP EDGENYY

TB STARTER

Ian Seymour

AVERAGE
7.6
PROJECTED Ks
102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 29% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 26% whiffSweeper · 20% · 32% whiff

NYY STARTER

Cam Schlittler

GOOD
8.0
PROJECTED Ks
115
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 35% whiffCutter · 26% · 24% whiffSinker · 20% · 17% whiff

Cam Schlittler grades good (Pitching+ 115) vs Ian Seymour grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 67% · HR 24%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 70% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 68% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 64% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 57% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Richie Palacios (L)hit 57% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Ryan Vilade (R)hit 58% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cedric Mullins (L)hit 47% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jorge Mateo (R)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

NYY LINEUP

  1. 1Ben Rice (L)hit 72% · HR 35%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    35%

    HOME RUN

    53%

    2+ BASES

    42%

    3+ BASES

    37%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 61% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Luis García Jr. (L)hit 71% · HR 29%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    29%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    31%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Heliot Ramos (R)hit 63% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Spencer Jones (L)hit 61% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jazz Chisholm Jr.hit 59% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7José Caballero (R)hit 53% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Ryan McMahon (L)hit 52% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Ali Sánchez (R)hit 56% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TB NYY

Game Markets

TB @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

38%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

39%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore TB by 0.48 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TB 3.55, NYY 4.02
  • Ian Seymour (TB) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
IS

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

36%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

62%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

58%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
  • 89% to reach 5+ against NYY
CS

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

40%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

69%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 93% to reach 5+ against TB
BR

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

37%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

41%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

22%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ian Seymour
LJ

Luis García Jr.

NYY · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

33%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Ian Seymour
JC

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
JA

Jonathan Aranda

TB · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
VJ

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 18% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
JJ

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6
  • Facing Ian Seymour
LH

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
SJ

Spencer Jones

NYY · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Ian Seymour
HR

Heliot Ramos

NYY · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Ian Seymour
GJ

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ian Seymour
JD

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
RV

Ryan Vilade

TB · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
RP

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
AS

Ali Sánchez

NYY · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ian Seymour
JC

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ian Seymour
RM

Ryan McMahon

NYY · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ian Seymour
JM

Jorge Mateo

TB · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cam Schlittler
CM

Cedric Mullins

TB · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cam Schlittler

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.