MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Myles Straw · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
Brandon Valenzuela · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
L30 contact rate + matchup
George Springer · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
RBI specialist hitting in front of traffic
George Springer · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Kazuma Okamoto · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
form + position drive the RBI projection
Alejandro Kirk · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
middle-order + runners-on profile
Kazuma Okamoto · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
L30 contact rate + matchup
Josh Smith · Over 0.5 1+ Hits
lineup spot + form pushes Over
Kazuma Okamoto · Over 0.5 1+ HR
barrel rate spike vs vulnerable RHP
George Springer · Over 0.5 1+ HR
platoon edge + park boost
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
TOR @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
47%
Game Total
Over 8.5
38%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
38%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
33%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
39%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore TOR by 0.35 runs across 5,000 trials.
TOR SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
52%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BAL SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
92%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
41%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
46%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
BAL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
30%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
54%
Total Bases
3+ bases
40%
Total Bases
4+ bases
34%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 30% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
63%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
23%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
33%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
29%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 22% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
65%
Hits
2+ hits
24%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
20%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
33%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
28%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
TOR · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
26%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
BAL · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
21%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
TOR · bats S · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
13%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.
BAL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
60%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.
TOR · bats L · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
TOR · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
17%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
TOR · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
30%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 57%.
TOR · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
4%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
11%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
21%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 60%.
BAL · bats R · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
28%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 60%.
BAL · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
23%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
8%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 60%.
BAL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
44%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
20%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
18%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
5%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 60%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 3.7–4.1 · projected total 7.8 runs · built on locked lineups
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