BETFLYAISIGN IN
WASHINGTONWSH
75-84 · +4 NL EAST · W2 · 7-3 L10
@WED 1:10 PM ETDET HOME PARK
74-85 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
DETROITDET
Weather
—
Home plate ump
Mike Muchlinski K+0.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Richard Lovelady
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.71
IP
34.0
K/9
7.9
BB/9
5.8
WHIP
1.82
L5 STARTS3.46 ERA · 15% K · 5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
43%
30%
22%
SweeperSinker4-Seam Fastball
Framber Valdez
LHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.03
IP
174.0
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS2.47 ERA · 20.2% K · 9.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
46%
28%
20%
SinkerCurveballChangeupSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS19 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

CJ Abrams · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

top-of-order scoring spot vs hittable opp

+600 DraftKings14% book36% +21pp

Dylan Crews · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

+850 DraftKings11% book32% +21pp

Brady House · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

+750 DraftKings12% book33% +21pp

Framber Valdez · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

K projection runs under in this matchup

-143 DraftKings59% book79% +20pp

Andrés Chaparro · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

leadoff spot, 2-3-4 drives him in

+161 DraftKings38% book58% +20pp

James Wood · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

RBI specialist hitting in front of traffic

+450 DraftKings18% book38% +20pp

James Wood · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

top-of-order scoring spot vs hittable opp

+130 BetMGM43% book60% +16pp

Andrés Chaparro · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine

+252 DraftKings28% book42% +14pp

Andrés Chaparro · Over 0.5 1+ HR

platoon edge + park boost

+850 BetRivers11% book21% +11pp

CJ Abrams · Over 1.5 2+ TB

extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher

+290 Bovada26% book36% +10pp

James Wood · Over 0.5 1+ HR

career numbers vs this profile + ballpark

+1100 Caesars8% book17% +9pp

Andrés Chaparro · Over 1.5 2+ TB

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+215 BetRivers32% book40% +8pp

Jacob Young · Over 1.5 2+ TB

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

+300 BetRivers25% book32% +7pp

Yohandy Morales · Over 1.5 2+ TB

extra-base profile vs vulnerable starter

+270 BetRivers27% book34% +7pp

Yohandy Morales · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

high-OBP profile + lineup behind drives runs

+199 DraftKings33% book39% +6pp

CJ Abrams · Over 0.5 1+ HR

matchup grade lights up the HR pricing

+950 Caesars10% book15% +5pp

Andrés Chaparro · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

L30 contact rate + matchup

-139 DraftKings58% book63% +5pp

Harry Ford · Over 1.5 2+ TB

matchup grade unlocks TB upside

+290 BetRivers26% book31% +5pp

CJ Abrams · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine

+236 DraftKings30% book35% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTigers 57%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

WSH DET

Game Markets

WSH @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

DET to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

47%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

DET -1.5

40%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

DET projects to outscore WSH by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.56, DET 5.01
  • Richard Lovelady (WSH) vs Framber Valdez (DET)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
RL

Richard Lovelady

WSH SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

50%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against DET
FV

Framber Valdez

DET SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against WSH
AC

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Framber Valdez
JW

James Wood

WSH · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 26% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Framber Valdez
RG

Riley Greene

DET · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
KM

Kevin McGonigle

DET · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
DD

Dillon Dingler

DET · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
CA

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Framber Valdez
HL

Hao-Yu Lee

DET · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
ST

Spencer Torkelson

DET · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
BH

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 28% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Framber Valdez
MC

Max Clark

DET · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
BM

Ben Malgeri

DET · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
DC

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Framber Valdez
YM

Yohandy Morales

WSH · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Framber Valdez
JY

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
JP

John Peck

DET · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 64%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
HF

Harry Ford

WSH · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 64%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
ZM

Zach McKinstry

DET · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Richard Lovelady
NN

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

6%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 64%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Framber Valdez
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RICHARD LOVELADY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%15.6%OPS-against.825
vs Left-handedK%20.3%OPS-against.904
DET vs LHP (team)OPS.709K%23.3%

FRAMBER VALDEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%15.5%OPS-against.698
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.715
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.772K%24.0%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

DET BATTERS vs RICHARD LOVELADY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs FRAMBER VALDEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 2·DET 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 2·DET 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%WSH
WSH 30 · DET 30 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-23WSH 4-2
2026-09-22WSH 3-1
2026-09-21DET 9-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH97¢ · 97%
DET9¢ · 9%
Total 5.5
Over49¢ · 49%
Under59¢ · 59%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5— · —
DET +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-32 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

DET OFFENSE

.351L15 team wOBA
+35 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT
COMERICA PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.97 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Deep LC/RC. Suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
MUCHLINSKI
Called K rate0.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr330

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

TIGERS 57%

Mean score sim 4.6–5.0 · projected total 9.6 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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