Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ketel Marte · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Geraldo Perdomo · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Hunter Goodman · Over 0.5 1+ HR
matchup grade lights up the HR pricing
Lars Nootbaar · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
power matchup vs Gordon
Jake McCarthy · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Gabriel Moreno · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Corbin Carroll · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
ARI @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ARI to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
71%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
68%
Run Line
COL -1.5
27%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
66%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
51%
THE READ
ARI projects to outscore COL by 1.45 runs across 5,000 trials.
ARI SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
53%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
73%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
COL SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
29%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
3%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
48%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
COL · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
33%
Hits
1+ hits
75%
Hits
2+ hits
36%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
43%
Total Bases
4+ bases
37%
RBIs
1+ RBI
49%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
26%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
56%
Total Bases
3+ bases
42%
Total Bases
4+ bases
32%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 32% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
82%
Hits
2+ hits
46%
Total Bases
2+ bases
60%
Total Bases
3+ bases
41%
Total Bases
4+ bases
30%
RBIs
1+ RBI
44%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 46% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
24%
Hits
1+ hits
72%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
50%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
45%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
22%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
21%
Hits
1+ hits
78%
Hits
2+ hits
40%
Total Bases
2+ bases
55%
Total Bases
3+ bases
38%
Total Bases
4+ bases
28%
RBIs
1+ RBI
41%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 4+ bases — 28% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
COL · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
77%
Hits
2+ hits
39%
Total Bases
2+ bases
52%
Total Bases
3+ bases
35%
Total Bases
4+ bases
25%
RBIs
1+ RBI
32%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 39% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
76%
Hits
2+ hits
38%
Total Bases
2+ bases
51%
Total Bases
3+ bases
34%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 38% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats L · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
68%
Hits
2+ hits
28%
Total Bases
2+ bases
43%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
19%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 19% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats S · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
35%
Total Bases
2+ bases
47%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
19%
RBIs
1+ RBI
38%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
18%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
22%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
ARI · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
17%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
28%
Total Bases
4+ bases
21%
RBIs
1+ RBI
39%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
17%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
COL · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
44%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
36%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 71%.
COL · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
69%
Hits
2+ hits
29%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
27%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.
COL · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
13%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
42%
Total Bases
3+ bases
26%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
15%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.
COL · bats R · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
24%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
31%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.
COL · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
62%
Hits
2+ hits
21%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
30%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 70%.
COL · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
19%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
26%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 70%.
COL · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
58%
Hits
2+ hits
18%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
25%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 70%.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Altitude — extreme run environment.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 6.5–5.0 · projected total 11.5 runs · built on locked lineups
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