AI MODEL READ
SETTLEDCLE vs BOS
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Thursday, September 24, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the CLE @ BOS simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
Steven Kwan (L) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
Steven Kwan in this spot
BATTER PROPS · STEVEN KWAN
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
BOS to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
BOS -1.5
TEAM TOTAL BOS
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
BOS wins F5
event 1 / 79 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
✓ CONFIRMEDBoston wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
CLE STARTER
Daniel Espino
GOOD- 8.6
- PROJECTED Ks
- 108
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
BOS STARTER
Ranger Suarez
AVERAGE- 4.0
- PROJECTED Ks
- 99
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Ranger Suarez grades avg (Pitching+ 99) vs Daniel Espino grades good (Pitching+ 108)
CLE LINEUP
1Steven Kwan (L)hit 67% · HR 5%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
2José Ramírez (S)hit 65% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
3Chase DeLauter (L)hit 70% · HR 9%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
70%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4Jo Adell (R)hit 68% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
5Angel Martínez (S)hit 63% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
39%
2+ BASES
24%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
34%
SCORES A RUN
6David Fry (R)hit 49% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
7Travis Bazzana (L)hit 56% · HR 8%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
8Patrick Bailey (S)hit 52% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 52% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
7%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
BOS LINEUP
1Nick Sogard (S)hit 51% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
2Mickey Gasper (S)hit 54% · HR 14%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
54%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
30%
2+ BASES
18%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
32%
SCORES A RUN
3Adley Rutschman (S)hit 53% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
29%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
4Wilyer Abreu (L)hit 52% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
5Caleb Durbin (R)hit 51% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
51%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
6Ceddanne Rafaelahit 53% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
7Jarren Duran (L)hit 45% · HR 12%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
45%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
22%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN
8Trevor Story (R)hit 46% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
23%
2+ BASES
12%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
19%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
22%
SCORES A RUN
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)hit 46% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
21%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
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169 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 21
Game Markets
CLE @ BOS · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
BOS F5
30%
Game Total
Over 8.5
32%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
35%
Run Line
BOS -1.5
23%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
23%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore BOS by 1.08 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: CLE 4.05, BOS 2.97
- Daniel Espino (CLE) vs Ranger Suarez (BOS)
- Run on confirmed lineups
Daniel Espino
CLE SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
89%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
50%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
77%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
40%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
30%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
18%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
- Sim projects 8.6 strikeouts
- 95% to reach 5+ against BOS
Ranger Suarez
BOS SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
- 38% to reach 5+ against CLE
Jo Adell
CLE · bats R · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
19%
Hits
1+ hits
71%
Hits
2+ hits
31%
Total Bases
2+ bases
46%
Total Bases
3+ bases
31%
Total Bases
4+ bases
24%
RBIs
1+ RBI
42%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
20%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats R
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Chase DeLauter
CLE · bats L · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
74%
Hits
2+ hits
33%
Total Bases
2+ bases
45%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
16%
RBIs
1+ RBI
35%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
12%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 3 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Steven Kwan
CLE · bats L · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
70%
Hits
2+ hits
30%
Total Bases
2+ bases
39%
Total Bases
3+ bases
18%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 1 · bats L
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Angel Martínez
CLE · bats S · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
66%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
41%
Total Bases
3+ bases
25%
Total Bases
4+ bases
18%
RBIs
1+ RBI
34%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
14%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 14% against 9% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 5 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Wilyer Abreu
BOS · bats L · slot 4
Home Run
1+ HR
15%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
34%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
17%
RBIs
1+ RBI
27%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
11%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 4 · bats L
- Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
- Facing Daniel Espino
José Ramírez
CLE · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
67%
Hits
2+ hits
27%
Total Bases
2+ bases
40%
Total Bases
3+ bases
22%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
29%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
10%
THE READ
Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Mickey Gasper
BOS · bats S · slot 2
Home Run
1+ HR
14%
Hits
1+ hits
57%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
19%
Total Bases
4+ bases
15%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 2 · bats S
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Daniel Espino
Jarren Duran
BOS · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
12%
Hits
1+ hits
47%
Hits
2+ hits
10%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
16%
Total Bases
4+ bases
14%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
9%
THE READ
Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Daniel Espino
Travis Bazzana
CLE · bats L · slot 7
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
59%
Hits
2+ hits
20%
Total Bases
2+ bases
32%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.
- Batting 7 · bats L
- Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Adley Rutschman
BOS · bats S · slot 3
Home Run
1+ HR
10%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
31%
Total Bases
3+ bases
17%
Total Bases
4+ bases
12%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 3 · bats S
- Facing Daniel Espino
David Fry
CLE · bats R · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
51%
Hits
2+ hits
13%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
23%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 51%.
- Batting 6 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS · slot 6
Home Run
1+ HR
9%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
29%
Total Bases
3+ bases
15%
Total Bases
4+ bases
11%
RBIs
1+ RBI
24%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
8%
THE READ
Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 55%.
- Batting 6
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Daniel Espino
Brayan Rocchio
CLE · bats S · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
6%
Hits
1+ hits
55%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
26%
Total Bases
3+ bases
12%
Total Bases
4+ bases
7%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 58%.
- Batting 9 · bats S
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Patrick Bailey
CLE · bats S · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
54%
Hits
2+ hits
16%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
22%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
7%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 58%.
- Batting 8 · bats S
- Facing Ranger Suarez
Caleb Durbin
BOS · bats R · slot 5
Home Run
1+ HR
7%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
9%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.
- Batting 5 · bats R
- Facing Daniel Espino
Nick Sogard
BOS · bats S · slot 1
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
53%
Hits
2+ hits
15%
Total Bases
2+ bases
27%
Total Bases
3+ bases
14%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
19%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 58%.
- Batting 1 · bats S
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Daniel Espino
Trevor Story
BOS · bats R · slot 8
Home Run
1+ HR
8%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
11%
Total Bases
2+ bases
25%
Total Bases
3+ bases
13%
Total Bases
4+ bases
10%
RBIs
1+ RBI
20%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
6%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 8% against 10%.
- Batting 8 · bats R
- Facing Daniel Espino
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
BOS · bats R · slot 9
Home Run
1+ HR
5%
Hits
1+ hits
48%
Hits
2+ hits
12%
Total Bases
2+ bases
22%
Total Bases
3+ bases
10%
Total Bases
4+ bases
6%
RBIs
1+ RBI
17%
RBIs
2+ RBIs
4%
THE READ
Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 48% against 58%.
- Batting 9 · bats R
- Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
- Facing Daniel Espino
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
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