Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals · AI Model Read · Thursday, September 24, 2026

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CHICAGOCWS

82-77 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10

@THU 2:10 PM ETKC HOME PARK

68-91 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 2-8 L10

KANSAS CITYKC

Weather

74°F · 6mph out to LF

Home plate ump

Todd Tichenor K-0.5%

Injuries

No injury concerns

Series so far

3-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026

— PITCHING MATCHUP

David Sandlin

RHP · CWSPROBABLE

STUFF+100

ERA

5.58

40.1

K/9

8.9

BB/9

2.9

WHIP

1.21

L5 STARTS4.45 ERA · 23.9% K · 5.5% BB▲ TRENDING

PITCH MIX · SEASON

36%

28%

16%

4-Seam FastballCurveballCutter

Randy Dobnak

RHP · KCPROBABLE

STUFF+—

ERA

3.51

74.1

K/9

5.9

BB/9

3.1

WHIP

1.40

L5 STARTS7.53 ERA · 15% K · 5% BB

PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Randy Dobnak · Over 14.5 15+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

-174 DraftKings64% book91% +28pp

Randy Dobnak · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

-104 FanDuel51% book77% +26pp

David Sandlin · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

-132 DraftKings57% book83% +26pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETWhite Sox 52%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CWS KC

Game Markets

CWS @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CWS to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

55%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

KC -1.5

31%

Team Total

CWS Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

CWS projects to outscore KC by 0.54 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: CWS 5.04, KC 4.50
David Sandlin (CWS) vs Randy Dobnak (KC)
Run on confirmed lineups

David Sandlin

CWS SP · vs. KC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
52% to reach 5+ against KC

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. CWS

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
23% to reach 5+ against CWS

Munetaka Murakami

CWS · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

29%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

44%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 29% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
Facing Randy Dobnak

Carter Jensen

KC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing David Sandlin

Miguel Vargas

CWS · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Randy Dobnak

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Facing David Sandlin

Colson Montgomery

CWS · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Randy Dobnak

Sam Antonacci

CWS · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Facing Randy Dobnak

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats R
Facing David Sandlin

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing David Sandlin

Kyle Teel

CWS · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Randy Dobnak

Tristan Peters

CWS · bats L · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 6 · bats L
Facing Randy Dobnak

Andrew Benintendi

CWS · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Randy Dobnak

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing David Sandlin

Chase Meidroth

CWS · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Randy Dobnak

John Rave

KC · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing David Sandlin

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing David Sandlin

Braden Montgomery

CWS · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 59% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Randy Dobnak

Kyle Isbel

KC · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 65%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Sandlin

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 65%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing David Sandlin

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DAVID SANDLIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.8%OPS-against.575

vs Left-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.822

KC vs RHP (team)OPS.723K%20.6%

RANDY DOBNAK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.5%OPS-against.672

vs Left-handedK%13.9%OPS-against.770

CWS vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%24.1%

— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs DAVID SANDLIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CWS BATTERS vs RANDY DOBNAK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY

THIS SERIES

CWS 2·KC 1

3-game set · gm 3 of 3

2026 SEASON

CWS 10·KC 5

15 played · 4 remaining

ALL-TIME (2010-)

56%KC

CWS 145 · KC 186 · since 2010

NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS

2026-09-24CWS 9-1 · Blowout

2026-09-23KC 5-4 · One-run game

2026-09-22CWS 14-11 · Slugfest

— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Moneyline

CWS58¢ · 58%

KC46¢ · 46%

Total 9

Over50¢ · 50%

Under54¢ · 54%

Run line ±1.5

CWS -1.5— · —

KC +1.5— · —

First 5 innings

O 4.5— · —

U 4.5— · —

TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→9→8.5→9last 12h

— LINEUP FORM · L15

CWS OFFENSE

.314L15 team wOBA

-2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

KC OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA

-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

— ENVIRONMENT74° · 6mph out to LF

KAUFFMAN STADIUM

94HR

HR factor0.94 · below avg

Runs factor0.96 · neutral

Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

74°F

Wind6 mph out to LF

Humidity60%

Rain1%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

TICHENOR

Called K rate-0.5% vs avg

Runs per 9—

Games this yr318

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean

Injury report unavailable.

THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

WHITE SOX 52%

Mean score sim 5.0–4.5 · projected total 9.5 runs · built on locked lineups

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