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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

MIA vs CHC

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs

Thursday, September 24, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIA @ CHC simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MIAMIMIA
0·0
CHICAGOCHC
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIA DUGOUTCHC DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Otto Lopez (R) vs HP

FB92
CT88.1
FB94.8
SL86.1
FB95.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Otto Lopez in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · OTTO LOPEZ

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CHC to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CHC -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CHC

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CHC wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYOtto Lopez at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 83 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Chicago C wins

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC
LINEUP EDGECHC

MIA STARTER

Tyler Phillips

SHAKY
3.4
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 26% · 6% whiffSweeper · 24% · 33% whiffSplit-Finger · 23% · 35% whiff

CHC STARTER

Matthew Boyd

AVERAGE
3.6
PROJECTED Ks
100
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 16% whiffChangeup · 28% · 27% whiffSlider · 14% · 37% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Matthew Boyd grades avg (Pitching+ 100) vs Tyler Phillips grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

MIA LINEUP

  1. 1Otto Lopez (R)hit 74% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    74%

    1+ HIT

    38%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Heriberto Hernández (R)hit 68% · HR 25%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    27%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jakob Marsee (L)hit 59% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Javier Sanoja (R)hit 70% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Agustín Ramírez (R)hit 63% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Esteury Ruiz (R)hit 57% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Deyvison De Los Santos (R)hit 55% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jared Serna (R)hit 55% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brian Navarreto (R)hit 49% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

CHC LINEUP

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 75% · HR 36%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    75%

    1+ HIT

    39%

    2+ HITS

    36%

    HOME RUN

    58%

    2+ BASES

    46%

    3+ BASES

    39%

    4+ BASES

    49%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    65%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 69% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Michael Busch (L)hit 65% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Michael Conforto (L)hit 64% · HR 20%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ian Happ (S)hit 63% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    23%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 64% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Pedro Ramírez (S)hit 59% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Carson Kelly (R)hit 58% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Dansby Swanson (R)hit 55% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIA CHC

Game Markets

MIA @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

52%

Game Total

Over 8.5

59%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

62%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

46%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

58%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore MIA by 1.12 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.46, CHC 5.58
  • Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Matthew Boyd (CHC)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

13%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against CHC
MB

Matthew Boyd

CHC SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 28% to reach 5+ against MIA
PC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

36%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

62%

Total Bases

3+ bases

49%

Total Bases

4+ bases

42%

RBIs

1+ RBI

51%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
HH

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
OL

Otto Lopez

MIA · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

77%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
SS

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

41%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
IH

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
MC

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JS

Javier Sanoja

MIA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

28%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 33% against 26% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
MB

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
NH

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
AR

Agustín Ramírez

MIA · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
ER

Esteury Ruiz

MIA · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
JM

Jakob Marsee

MIA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
PR

Pedro Ramírez

CHC · bats S · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 61% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats S
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
DS

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 13% against 14%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
CK

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Tyler Phillips
JS

Jared Serna

MIA · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
DS

Deyvison De Los Santos

MIA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd
BN

Brian Navarreto

MIA · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Matthew Boyd

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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