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MIL vs PHI

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

Thursday, September 24, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Garrett Mitchell (L) vs HP

FB94.9
FB94.7
CV76.8

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Garrett Mitchell in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · GARRETT MITCHELL

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

41%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYGarrett Mitchell at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✗ MISSED

Philadelphia wins

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPHI
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Shane Drohan

AVERAGE
4.2
PROJECTED Ks
97
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 30% whiffSlider · 22% · 41% whiffSinker · 21% · 15% whiff

PHI STARTER

Andrew Painter

GOOD
5.4
PROJECTED Ks
106
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 33% · 16% whiffSlider · 18% · 36% whiffSweeper · 16% · 29% whiff

Andrew Painter grades good (Pitching+ 106) vs Shane Drohan grades avg (Pitching+ 97)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 66% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brice Turang (L)hit 64% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3William Contreras (R)hit 65% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jake Bauers (L)hit 63% · HR 20%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    20%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Gary Sánchez (R)hit 53% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Luis Lara (S)hit 57% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cooper Pratt (R)hit 60% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Sal Frelick (L)hit 54% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Joey Ortiz (R)hit 55% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

PHI LINEUP

  1. 1Kyle Schwarber (L)hit 58% · HR 24%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    24%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Trea Turner (R)hit 57% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Harper (L)hit 59% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Luis Arraez (L)hit 65% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    65%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Alec Bohm (R)hit 58% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryan De La Cruz (R)hit 56% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Bryson Stott (L)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8J.T. Realmuto (R)hit 50% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Justin Crawford (L)hit 51% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

MIL PHI

Game Markets

MIL @ PHI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

PHI F5

35%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

PHI -1.5

25%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

45%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore PHI by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.55, PHI 3.53
  • Shane Drohan (MIL) vs Andrew Painter (PHI)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
SD

Shane Drohan

MIL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against PHI
AP

Andrew Painter

PHI SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against MIL
KS

Kyle Schwarber

PHI · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 24% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JB

Jake Bauers

MIL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Painter
GM

Garrett Mitchell

MIL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Andrew Painter
WC

William Contreras

MIL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Painter
GS

Gary Sánchez

MIL · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BT

Brice Turang

MIL · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BH

Bryce Harper

PHI · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Shane Drohan
LA

Luis Arraez

PHI · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan
BC

Bryan De La Cruz

PHI · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 12% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
CP

Cooper Pratt

MIL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 63%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
AB

Alec Bohm

PHI · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
LL

Luis Lara

MIL · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter
TT

Trea Turner

PHI · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JO

Joey Ortiz

MIL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Andrew Painter
SF

Sal Frelick

MIL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Andrew Painter
BS

Bryson Stott

PHI · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JC

Justin Crawford

PHI · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan
JR

J.T. Realmuto

PHI · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Shane Drohan

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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