BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYM
73-86 · +5 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@THU 2:35 PM ETTEX HOME PARK
79-80 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 6-4 L10
TEXASTEX
Weather
90°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Erich Bacchus K-0.2%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zac Thornton
LHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.42
IP
84.1
K/9
6.7
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS4.50 ERA · 20.2% K · 3.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
Cutter
Kumar Rocker
RHP · TEXPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
4.38
IP
148.0
K/9
8.4
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS4.27 ERA · 22.8% K · 10.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
31%
14%
12%
SliderSinkerCutter4-Seam FastballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS11 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Juan Soto · Over 0.5 1+ Runs

walks his way around the bases

+125 DraftKings44% book66% +21pp

Carson Benge · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher

+110 Bovada48% book62% +14pp

Wyatt Langford · Under 0.5 <1 Runs

leadoff spot, 2-3-4 drives him in

-105 BetMGM51% book65% +14pp

Juan Soto · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

elite contact + lineup behind sees traffic

+170 BetRivers37% book51% +14pp

Francisco Lindor · Under 1.5 <2 Hits

regression candidate with hits upside

+120 BetMGM45% book58% +12pp

Juan Soto · Over 0.5 1+ HR

elite contact running hot, lefty park boost

+440 BetRivers19% book30% +12pp

Brett Baty · Over 1.5 2+ TB

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

+260 BetRivers28% book37% +9pp

Brett Baty · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

lineup spot + form pushes Over

-112 BetRivers53% book61% +9pp

Justin Foscue · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

hot stretch + soft matchup

-140 DraftKings58% book66% +8pp

Jake Burger · Over 0.5 1+ HR

stuff doesn't play vs his pull side

+510 BetRivers16% book24% +7pp

Justin Foscue · Over 1.5 2+ TB

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

+175 BetRivers36% book41% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRangers 52%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

NYM TEX

Game Markets

NYM @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

65%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

68%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

38%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

54%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

55%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 10.63 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: NYM 5.31, TEX 5.32
  • Zac Thornton (NYM) vs Kumar Rocker (TEX)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
ZT

Zac Thornton

NYM SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

78%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

67%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against TEX
KR

Kumar Rocker

TEX SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against NYM
JS

Juan Soto

NYM · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

36%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

59%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

40%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

25%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 36% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
JB

Jake Burger

TEX · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
FL

Francisco Lindor

NYM · bats S · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 17% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
JJ

Josh Jung

TEX · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

25%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 41% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Zac Thornton
CS

Corey Seager

TEX · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

55%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

29%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Facing Zac Thornton
JF

Justin Foscue

TEX · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 37% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
BN

Brandon Nimmo

TEX · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Zac Thornton
BB

Brett Baty

NYM · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
CB

Carson Benge

NYM · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
BB

Bo Bichette

NYM · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 69%.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
WL

Wyatt Langford

TEX · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
ED

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
AE

A.J. Ewing

NYM · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 68%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
LT

Luis Torrens

NYM · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 32% against 35%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
ED

Elias Díaz

TEX · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 32% against 35%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Zac Thornton
MS

Marcus Semien

NYM · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 68%.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
DJ

Danny Jansen

TEX · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Zac Thornton
NM

Nick Morabito

NYM · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 68%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kumar Rocker
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZAC THORNTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.765
vs Left-handedK%17.3%OPS-against.614
TEX vs RHP (team)OPS.691K%22.6%

KUMAR ROCKER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.667
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.820
NYM vs LHP (team)OPS.678K%22.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TEX BATTERS vs ZAC THORNTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs KUMAR ROCKER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 2·TEX 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 2·TEX 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%NYM
NYM 15 · TEX 12 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-24TEX 3-1
2026-09-24NYM 7-2
2026-09-23NYM 6-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM47¢ · 47%
TEX57¢ · 57%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
TEX +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

TEX OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT90° · 4mph out to LF
GLOBE LIFE FIELD
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral with roof.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity53%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
BACCHUS
Called K rate-0.2% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr154

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RANGERS 52%

Mean score sim 5.3–5.3 · projected total 10.6 runs · built on locked lineups

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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