BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

STL vs PIT

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Thursday, September 24, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the STL @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ST. LOUISSTL
0·0
PITTSBURGHPIT
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

STL DUGOUTPIT DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

JJ Wetherholt (L) vs HP

FB93
FB94.3
SL84.4
FB95.6
CT89.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

JJ Wetherholt in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JJ WETHERHOLT

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

55%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJJ Wetherholt at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 70 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEPIT
LINEUP EDGEPIT

STL STARTER

Kyle Leahy

AVERAGE
3.2
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 16% whiffCurveball · 16% · 27% whiffSlider · 16% · 23% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

PIT STARTER

Paul Skenes

AVERAGE
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 30% whiffSweeper · 16% · 27% whiffChangeup · 12% · 36% whiff

Paul Skenes grades avg (Pitching+ 105) vs Kyle Leahy grades avg (Pitching+ 101)

STL LINEUP

  1. 1JJ Wetherholt (L)hit 60% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Iván Herrera (R)hit 60% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Alec Burleson (L)hit 67% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jordan Walker (R)hit 64% · HR 18%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Leo Bernal (S)hit 62% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Bryan Torres (L)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Thomas Saggese (R)hit 53% · HR 8%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nathan Church (L)hit 53% · HR 6%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Masyn Winn (R)hit 49% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    9%

    3+ BASES

    5%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Oneil Cruz (L)hit 69% · HR 28%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    28%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    36%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Konnor Griffin (R)hit 61% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Brandon Lowe (L)hit 67% · HR 26%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    26%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    34%

    3+ BASES

    28%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Ryan O'Hearn (L)hit 63% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nick Gonzales (R)hit 66% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ronny Simon (S)hit 49% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 55% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jake Mangum (S)hit 56% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Henry Davis (R)hit 42% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    42%

    1+ HIT

    9%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL PIT

Game Markets

STL @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

38%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore STL by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 3.71, PIT 4.03
  • Kyle Leahy (STL) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

17%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against PIT
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

24%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against STL
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

52%

Total Bases

3+ bases

38%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

44%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 16% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Paul Skenes
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Paul Skenes
RO

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Paul Skenes
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JW

JJ Wetherholt

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Paul Skenes
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Paul Skenes
KG

Konnor Griffin

PIT · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
SH

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Paul Skenes
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Paul Skenes
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Paul Skenes
HD

Henry Davis

PIT · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

9%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 10% against 12%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Kyle Leahy
MW

Masyn Winn

STL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

4%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

22%

Total Bases

3+ bases

9%

Total Bases

4+ bases

5%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Paul Skenes
RS

Ronny Simon

PIT · bats S · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats S
  • Facing Kyle Leahy

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.