AI MODEL READ

PARTIAL LINEUPS

TB vs NYY

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Thursday, September 24, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TB @ NYY simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TAMPA BAYTB

0·0

NEW YORKNYY

TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Yandy Díaz (R) vs HP

FB92.8

FB93.1

FB93.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Yandy Díaz in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · YANDY DÍAZ

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYY to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYY -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYY

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYY wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYYandy Díaz at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 76 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYY

LINEUP EDGEEVEN

TB STARTER

Ian Seymour

AVERAGE

7.6
PROJECTED Ks: 102
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Changeup · 29% · 39% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 26% whiffSweeper · 20% · 32% whiff

NYY STARTER

Cam Schlittler

GOOD

6.6
PROJECTED Ks: 115
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 44% · 35% whiffCutter · 26% · 24% whiffSinker · 20% · 17% whiff

Cam Schlittler grades good (Pitching+ 115) vs Ian Seymour grades avg (Pitching+ 102)

TB LINEUP

1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 65% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
2Liam Hicks (L)hit 65% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
3Junior Caminero (R)hit 66% · HR 26%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
66%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
4Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 57% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
57%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
23%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
5Chandler Simpson (L)hit 68% · HR 3%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
3%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
6Jonny DeLuca (R)hit 53% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
7Richie Palacios (L)hit 53% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
29%
SCORES A RUN
8Ryan Vilade (R)hit 52% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
28%
SCORES A RUN
9Taylor Walls (S)hit 42% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
42%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
18%
2+ BASES
8%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
16%
RBI
4%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN

NYY LINEUP

1Paul Goldschmidt (R)hit 65% · HR 25%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
25%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
32%
3+ BASES
26%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
13%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
2Cody Bellinger (L)hit 58% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
3Heliot Ramos (R)hit 58% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
19%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
26%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
4Ben Rice (L)hit 65% · HR 27%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
27%
HOME RUN
46%
2+ BASES
33%
3+ BASES
28%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Amed Rosario (R)hit 53% · HR 11%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
53%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
26%
2+ BASES
15%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
23%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
6George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 49% · HR 10%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
14%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
7Anthony Volpe (R)hit 49% · HR 8%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
49%
1+ HIT
13%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
8Austin Wells (L)hit 43% · HR 12%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
20%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9José Caballero (R)hit 43% · HR 9%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
43%
1+ HIT
10%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
6%
2+ RBIs
26%
SCORES A RUN

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II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

TB NYY

Game Markets

TB @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TB to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

32%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

33%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.33 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

Projected runs: TB 3.74, NYY 3.60
Ian Seymour (TB) vs Cam Schlittler (NYY)
Run on confirmed lineups

Ian Seymour

TB SP · vs. NYY

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

89%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

35%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

59%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 7.6 strikeouts
89% to reach 5+ against NYY

Cam Schlittler

NYY SP · vs. TB

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

20%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

Sim projects 6.6 strikeouts
82% to reach 5+ against TB

Ben Rice

NYY · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Junior Caminero

TB · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

30%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

19%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Cam Schlittler

Paul Goldschmidt

NYY · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

25%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 25% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Ian Seymour

Chandler Simpson

TB · bats L · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats L
Facing Cam Schlittler

Victor Mesa Jr.

TB · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

20%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 13% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Cam Schlittler

Liam Hicks

TB · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Cam Schlittler

Yandy Díaz

TB · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cam Schlittler

Heliot Ramos

NYY · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 23% against 20% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Ian Seymour

Cody Bellinger

NYY · bats L · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 61%.

Batting 2 · bats L
Facing Ian Seymour

Jonny DeLuca

TB · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Cam Schlittler

Ryan Vilade

TB · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Cam Schlittler

Richie Palacios

TB · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 56%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Cam Schlittler

Amed Rosario

NYY · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 58%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

Austin Wells

NYY · bats L · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ HR at 12% against 13%.

Batting 8 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Ian Seymour

Anthony Volpe

NYY · bats R · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

Batting 7 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

George Lombard Jr.

NYY · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 58%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

José Caballero

NYY · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

45%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

20%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

17%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 45% against 58%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Ian Seymour

Taylor Walls

TB · bats S · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

44%

Hits

2+ hits

10%

Total Bases

2+ bases

19%

Total Bases

3+ bases

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

16%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 44% against 58%.

Batting 9 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Cam Schlittler

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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